Ben Irwin

Weekend Reads

2010-08-20T16:06:00.003-05:00

Interesting things I've read throughout the week in Economic Development, the Environment, and World Affairs.

Himalayan Disputes

2010-08-20T11:45:00.002-05:00

A long standing border dispute has raged between the worlds two most populous countries, India and China, for the stretch of a many decades. The Economist uncovers each nations underlying motivation for dispute in a comprehensive reporting piece. Stemming from an invasion of the Peoples Liberation Army in 1962 of India its occupied areas, China soon after assume control of Tibet, and claimed to control much more. Many of these claims have inspired local protest and national political dissension.

With 40% of the worlds people and with a combined armed force enlistment of four million troops, India and China would be worrisome opponents. Though the historic relationship between the two has been dicey, there has been a recent improvement in interaction, thanks to some international diplomatic handiwork. Some see this dispute as a forthcoming battle for Asian supremacy, and others just a natural butting of heads. Either way, tensions will remain heightened between the two until compromise is reached.

The Pakistani Floods From Above, Before and After

2010-08-20T10:52:00.003-05:00

The recent floods in Pakistan have devastated the the central Punjab and Sindh region, destroying countless of homes and causing massive food shortages for the three million inhabitants. The Map Room depicts two Landsat 5 images that give a birds eye view of the area before and after the flooding. Taken three days apart, the region is almost unrecognizable from above.

Thus far, aid has been slow to reach the area. Foreign reluctance can be attributed to the fragile position Pakistan currently occupies, however many believe now is the time to help regardless.

A North Korean Defectors Market

2010-08-19T11:33:00.005-05:00

The North Korean Economy Watch examines the process of defecting from the DPRK. Since the 1950's approximately 20,000 individuals have been able to defect from the isolated republic-- when comparing this figure to East to West German defection rates of 689,000 between1961 and 1989, you can see the difficulty North Korean citizens have in escaping their government. Though this number is growing in the past 20 years, as larger defector communities have spawned both in South Korea and in China. It has become an economic market of defection:

Nowadays defection is, above all, business, controlled by defection specialists known as “brokers’. If they are paid a fee which currently fluctuates around $2000-$3000 per head but in some special cases might go higher, they can move a person from borderland areas to a third country where they would go to a South Korean consulate or embassy (usually, in Thailand or Mongolia). In third countries (but not in China) South Korean diplomats issue defectors with provisional travel documents and a ticket to Seoul.

The money which is necessary to pay for the broker’s service comes from different channels. In most cases, the sum is provided by a family member who has already reached Seoul. Acquiring this money independently is well beyond the means of the average North Korean refugee in China.

Upon arrival defectors go through a few weeks of debriefing by the South Korean intelligence agencies (admittedly, most of them don’t have much of interest to tell the South Korean authorities). This is followed by three months of readjustment training at Hanawon, a special reeducation facility for refugees. There the new arrivals are briefly lectured on the wonders of liberal democracy as well as provided with somewhat more useful knowledge about foodstuffs available in South Korean shops and the way to pay for a subway ticket in Seoul. Then they are provided with a modest accommodation (heavily subsidized by the government) and some stipend for the initial expenses (the sum varies, but the rough average is around $10,000 per person).

The good news is that foreign neighbors of North Korea are supporting those who manage or have the wherewithal to defect and defection is becoming an increasingly available option. However because of the high price, many who are in the most estranged position will never have an opportunity to escape the iron grip of the DPRK. As the Korea Times illustrates, even those who manage to make it out of North Korea still have a very tough life ahead of them.

2010 World Global Cities Index

2010-08-19T10:46:00.003-05:00

Foreign Policy Magazine, The Chicago Council, and management consultant group A.T. Kearney have all collaborated to publish the an index of the worlds most 'global' cities. They make note that half of the worlds population now resides in an urban environment, and the rapidly expanding East is leading the growth as more and more Asians move from rural areas to the city.

The index seeks to measure and rank cities in global sway-- each urban metropolises influence on integration with global markets, culture, and innovation. The data that was assessed was wide ranging and very inclusive-- tallying everything from a city's business activity, human capital, and information exchange to its cultural experience and political engagement. From how many Fortune Global 500 company headquarters were in a city to the size of its capital markets and the flow of goods through its airports and ports, as well as factors such as the number of embassies, think tanks, political organizations, and museums. The list is ranked by an aggregate of all these factors.

New York, London, and Paris are among Western mainstays in the top 10, however as globalization does extend its reaches, we can expect the the huge megalopolises from the Eastern world to move quickly up the ladder.

Weekend Reads

2010-08-13T14:18:00.002-05:00

Interesting things I've read throughout the week in economic development, the environment, and geography.

Where Does the Laffer Curve Bend?

2010-08-10T11:32:00.003-05:00

Taxation is an issue that is creeping up on legislators as the American government's pocketbook has been bountifully doling out money to stave off collapse of the financial system. The Bush tax cuts are soon to expire and political leaders must deal with the largest budget deficit in national history. As debate will soon ensue about appropriate taxation levels, discussion regarding the Laffer curve is inevitable. Modeled after the work of Arthur Laffer, the curve seeks to find the correct equilibruim between maximized government revenue through taxation and all possible rate of taxation.

Looking at the chart above, we see that tax rates of zero percent produce no revenue, for obvious reasons. Rates of 100 percent should produce no revenue either, as no one would bother making the money that falls into that bracket knowing it would all be taken away. Thus, presumably, there is some rate in between the two that maximizes revenue (t*). Go above it and revenue would fall because people would avoid taxes or stop working; go below it and revenue would fall because less money would be taxed.

Dylan Matthews at the Washington Post asked several economists and political activists where they thought the curve should bend for government taxation. Harvard economics professor, Greg Mankiw, answers wisely:

"My guess is that that the short-run answer and the long-run answer are quite different. For example, if you raised the top rate from 35 to, say, 60 percent, you might raise revenue in the short run.

Over time, however, you would get lower economic growth, so the additional revenues would fall off and eventually decline below what they would have been at the lower rate.... I will pass on offering a specific number, as it would require more time and thought than I can offer just now, but I will opine that I think the long-run answer is actually more important for policy purposes than the short-run answer."

The truth is, nobody really knows and almost everyone interviewed readily admits this. Many of the economists pegged the the number around 60% and many politicians pegged it at 30%, thus the divide in mentality. Mankiw makes a good point however, while overtaxing citizens may produce optimal government revenue in the short-term, what effect does that have on long-term growth? Less money in the hands of consumers means less growth outside the government infrastructure, while subsidized development can be helpful-- it is not sustainable.

Post Conflict Recovery

2010-08-10T10:10:00.004-05:00

Conflict and warfare cements an irremovable stain on the psych of a nation, curbs any type of development, and halts the education of a large proportion of the labor force. There is no continent on earth that is more entrenched with the problems of conflict and post-conflict recovery than Africa-- in the mid-1990's alone a third of sub-Saharan African countries had an active civil war, many lasting a decade or longer.

Yale professor, researcher, and blogger, Chris Blattman writes a summary of his work on post-conflict recovery in Africa for the Oxford Companion to the Economics of Africa. In his work, he seeks to understand what effect conflict has on post-conflict development, or what it takes from both a macro and micro perspective to revive growth. While questioning the differences between historical bounce back (i.e. Japan, Germany, Vietnam) and recovery of African states, Blattman examines parallels, inconstancies, and information gaps. Though the data collection is difficult:

As the twentieth century closed, conflict afflicted more and more
countries. By some accounts, conflict represented the central impediment to African development.

Second, as wars ended in the early years of the new century, governments and researchers could safely collect micro data. In a few especially valuable instances, enterprising researchers followed up representative samples of pre-war national household surveys to create a pre- and post-war panel.

Combined with data on the location and severity of war violence, these panels could be used to create differences-in-differences estimates of the micro-level impacts of war. In most war-torn nations, unfortunately, pre-war data were destroyed or (more often) never existed in the first place.

Thus another approach has been to collect cross-sectional data after war, using plausibly exogenous variation in violence to assess the lasting effects. Nearly all our micro-evidence on war comes from one of these two (largely reduced-form) empirical strategies. Structural modeling and estimation of war impacts remains unfortunately rare.

But, some conclusions have been made.

It is tempting to assume that war always and everywhere diminishes social and institutional strength. There are clear instances of war doing just this: polarizing ethnic tensions in Sudan or Nigeria, or prompting looting and capital flight in 1990s Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Nevertheless, war can sometimes have the opposite effect. At the macro-level, Latin America’s and (especially) Europe’s state stability and strength are commonly attributed to centuries of internal and external warfare. Political scientists have drawn modern parallels to African states like Uganda and Rwanda,whose institutions appear to have emerged stronger from conflict.

Some Africans nations have seen positive recovery and a further development post-conflict, however most institutions struggle for stability after conflict. The factors for this are numerous, just as any nation trying to rebuild after a war, African states lose physical capital (i.e. houses burned, resources plundered, etc), and more importantly human capital. The latter, which is driven by education and health (both physical and mental), is the catalyst for growth and development in almost every economy.

To understand and overcome development hurdles inspired by a cycle of conflict and despair, Blattman says we need improved theories of behavior that explain the emerging stylized facts, and so the further study of war could challenge (and improve) basic theories of economic and political behavior. This hopefully spurring on trends for more conflict data.

Where Americans are Spending More...

2010-08-09T16:58:00.002-05:00

Since the recession began in the fourth quarter of 2007, Americans have changed their purchasing habits, and thus their lifestyles significantly. Mandel charts some of the aggregate personal consumption expenditure from the BEA below. The latest numbers tell us that spending is up 2.9% or $285 billion since Q4 in 2007, though not all sectors are fairing this as well as the total projects.

Increased spending on education, healthcare, and childcare are perceived as necessity expenditures. What is interesting is the 16.6% increase in telephone equipment and 14.4% increase in pet spending. Innovations in mobile devices, such as the iPhone, contribute heartily to a boost in consumer spending-- one of the few sectors to to see a consistent increase since the recession began. As Americans travel less (as we'll see below), they have more time to spend with pets and more money to spend on food and drink.

Americans are spending a little bit less on clothing and hotels; a lot less on foreign travel, video and audio equipment (think televisions), and furniture. The big drop, though, has come in motor vehicles and associated goods and services, like gasoline. The drop in fuel consumption can be contributed to both higher gas prices, and an environmental awareness-- as many cities have begun initiatives for sustainable transportation options, carpooling, and green transport tax incentives. To stave off hard times, many Americans are staying home, and spending their money locally.

Where Do the Diamonds Come From?

2010-08-09T11:32:00.002-05:00

The Economist charts the worlds largest diamond producers. Since 2000, the governments of over 75 countries have signed up to the Kimberley Process, which certifies that diamonds produced for foreign markets have not helped to fund violence. The Process has its critics, who point out that diamonds from the huge Marange mine in Zimbabwe have just been cleared for sale, despite much evidence of government-sponsored violence there.

Google Earth and Geopolitics

2010-08-09T10:03:00.003-05:00

A continually improving Google Earth is altering the way governments and its citizens deal with geography. Foreign Policy comments on the geopolitics of a world satellite map at the available at to any one with an internet connection. Amateur cartographers (and non-cartographers alike) have begun to spot things that stir the political hornets nest between nations.

A German user recently discovered a Chinese military installation that appeared to have constructed a 500:1 scale model of the disputed border region of Kashmir, an area claimed by both India and China. The Chinese, of course, denied such charges and claimed it as only a tank training center, but elevated political tension was dispensed to both nations. Typically government's are keen to request Google to blur or black out military installations, to obscure it from the wandering layman's eye.

However, Google does not have a working relationship with all governments. North Korea, for example, has seen thousands of Google users uncover everything from nuclear sites to airbases, surface-to-air missile batteries to secret underground bunkers. A few years ago, Google Earth images revealed North Korean submarines -- the existence of which Pyongyang had long denied -- neatly lined up along the country's western coast. In fact, George Mason Universities Curtis Melvin used Google Earth to created the most authoritative annotated map of the country, including confirmation of numerous prison camps.

Melvin is not alone in his attempt to bring light to international injustices, the US Holocaust Museum also recently launched a project to use Google Earth in mapping the destruction of towns and villages in the Darfur region. To date, the project -- in conjunction with the U.S. State Department -- had mapped 3,300 villages burned by government forces or janjaweed militants.

The wide availability of this type of geographic data has shifted a large amount of power into the hands of those willing to dedicate time to pour over the endless overhead images of our globe. Additionally, it enforces a certain amount of accountability to the leaders of wayward nations who think closing their borders keeps prying eyes away. Of course Google must tread carefully, as allowing access to too much sensitive data would contribute to a degradation in state diplomacy and violate privacy.

The promising future for Google Earth is not in hunting down nuclear weapons, or spying on foreign nations, but rather for use as a possible tool for mapping environmental factors, climate change, and using prediction models to understand whats to come.

Weekend Reads

2010-08-06T12:25:00.003-05:00

Interesting things I've read throughout the week in economic development, the environment, and geography

Floods and Politics in Pakistan

2010-08-06T11:51:00.002-05:00

Monsoons have caused the worst flooding in Pakistan's history and the rains keep coming, taking some 1,400 lives to date and leveling tens of thousands of homes along the way. The worst floods in 80 years to curse the central Punjab and Sindh region and its 3 million inhabitants are causing massive food shortages and a widespread destruction of homes. The US recently allocated a total of $35 million dollars of aid money to relieve trouble Pakistani's in the area, many of whom hold anti-western sentiments.

This aid money for flood relief pours in just as Pakistan's president, Asif Ali Zardari, returns home from his foreign travels-- an arrival met by hoards of protesters discontent with what they perceive as corruption in the government. Zardari faces an uphill battle as the floodwaters continue to flow in the nations primary food producing region, already unpopular with corruption charges pending in three different countries-- the president has set no emergency evacuation plans for natural disasters, nor has he allocated money for institutions that could help victims of such crises.

The US friendly, Pakistani governments inaction could be a bane for future growth of western support among the people. Especially as many hard-line, Islamic charities often hold sway in the minds of the people, and provide assistance to the region when disaster strikes. Though with the floods proving formidable and very destructive, some say US aid for relief can indeed help undercut Taliban influence.

President Zardari has much to improve within his nation's infrastructure in order to earn the hearts of his constituents, though immediate and successful flood relief can do much to patch an already poor national image.

The Rising Cost of Breakfast

2010-08-05T11:01:00.004-05:00

Breakfast is becoming more expensive, thanks to the climate conditions major wheat, orange, and coffee producers are experiencing around the world. The Economist tells us that severe drought and wildfires have destroyed a fifth of Russian, the locale of the worlds fourth largest grain producers, crops. Whats more is that Kazakhstan and Ukraine, two other big wheat producers, are also seeing dry weather and a lower expected crop yield. Even Canada, another worldwide wheat contributer, has seen its share of weather problems, though these in the form of an unusually wet season causing a destruction of crops and seeds.

Orange juice, another breakfast staple, has also seen rising prices over the past few months. Orange growers in lower latitudes are buckling down for whats predicted to be a foul season of tropical storms. The prospective harvest has been adjusted to reflect the expected misery.Even coffee prices have hit a 12 year highas the demand out paces the supply. Coffee growers too, have faced a lower than expected harvest of beans.

All items considered, these raw breakfast ingredients have increased price by 25% since the beginning of June. The recent ban on the export of Russian wheat will take the price even higher for that commodity-- pushing what consumers pay up yet another notch. Producers will have to be both wary and flexible with their expected yields in the future, as climate conditions have had more effect than ever on variable harvests.

Development Along Borders

2010-08-05T09:45:00.002-05:00

Each year the United Nations releases a Human Development Report seeking, among other things, to understand development, inequality, and standard of living in different nations. The Human Development Index is used to be a measure of a long and healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living. The graphic below depicts the disparity of the US-Mexico border in 2009, measured in terms of the HDI.

Measuring development on a scale from 0.0 to 1.0 (higher is better), we see that the lowest HDI county on the US side (Starr County Texas) is higher than the highest HDI municipality in Mexico (i.e., Mexicali). This is no shock, but does provide evidence of the opportunity the millions of migrants seek each year as they cross the border illegally.

As the 2009 Report points out, as it looks at the question of global migration 'a family who migrates from Nicaragua to Costa Rica increases the probability that their child will be enrolled in primary school by 22 percent (10).' That is a significant improvement, and that is not the only benefit, as most individuals also see their incomes sharply rise after the move north. As Steven Taylor points out, the ability to improve the lives of oneself and one’s family is a huge incentive–and one that is difficult to legislate away.

Still Subsidizing Fossil Fuels?

2010-08-04T15:35:00.003-05:00

If you think that renewable energy is the focal point in governmental subsidies, getting the infant, but necessary industry off its the ground, you would be wrong. Bloomberg reports that fossil fuels are given twelve times the support via government subsidy than that of renewable energy sources.

In 2008, governments gave $43 to $46 billion of support to renewable energy through tax credits, guaranteed electricity prices known as feed-in tariffs, and alternative energy credits. Fossil fuels, however, received $557 billion worth of subsidy. Why the huge discrepancy of allocation? If policymakers are serious about climate change and cutting carbon emissions, then it seems they have misplaced priorities.

In fact, the New Republic points out a report from Harvard's Kennedy Center last year that found the world could cut global CO2 emissions nearly 6 percent simply by scrapping price supports for fossil energy. The money saved could be used to cushion the blow of a short term increase of energy prices, and supplant the fossil fuel dependence with a large and more flexible renewable infrastructure.

Interestingly enough, Bloomberg also reports that one-quarter of clean energy subsidies worldwide come from Germany alone-- a country claiming 20% of its energy sources from renewables. The good news is that many nations are looking to follow suit, China for example has extended $24 billion of loans via a state controlled bank to green energy companies for development.

The Urbanization of Las Vegas

2010-08-04T11:34:00.004-05:00

As Urban Demographics points out, Las Vegas has experienced a massive urban sprawl over the past 25 years. Watch it unfold ...

This explosion of growth occurred in a relatively short period of time, the expansion a result of the Las Vegas city officials want to diversify the economy from tourism. A lack of individual and corporate income tax, along with relaxed incorporation laws led the city to foster successful and extremely quick development.

However, recently Las Vegas has seen a decline in visitors-- a likely causality of the recession. This is in stark contrast with hotel operators expectations, as the number of available rooms increased dramatically over the same period of time.

As the city continues to grow and diversify, the urban sprawl will possibly lead to a more stable housing market, though some are questioning its legitimacy and pointing toward a darkening future along with another potential housing bust.

Petroleum in the Arctic

2010-08-04T10:55:00.006-05:00

Over the past 40 years, the landless Arctic has seen a unique form of domestication. The mapping and study of the receding ice formations has brought some understanding to the once desolate and isolated cap of the earth. The interest has been recently revived as global warming pushes back ice caps and petroleum mining ambitions expand.

A more accessible Arctic sets the stage for territorial squabbles between countries with mineral rights extractions claims. This land grab has prompted new political negotiations in accord with the UN Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS), which states that countries may claim mineral-extraction rights to the continental shelf outside their usual 200-nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone, as long as they can precisely locate the edge of the shelf according to rules included in the Convention.

This has spurred the five countries that border the Arctic to began mapping the sea floor and its possible mineral deposits in order to accurately state claims. New mapping technologies have given the Arctic floor several huge revisions over the past few years. Below, Radical Cartography gives us an idea of current deposits inspiring the petrol geopolitics.

These deposits, along with an emerging map of the Arctic area have roused countries to develop strategies for dealing with Arctic policy. International interaction at the top of the world has brought forth questions of Arctic governance. As boundaries continue to shift and change with a better understanding of the topography and possible petrol deposits, involved nations will see a busier Arctic.

A New Way to Measure Poverty

2010-08-03T14:08:00.003-05:00

Policymakers have always struggled to properly define and identify poverty on a universal scale. A common system of measurement is a monetary poverty line. An example would be the ‘dollar a day’ methodology, one which the World Bank uses to gauge whose needy—adjusting the scale for purchasing power, people are measured on whether they have the resources to buy a specific basket of goods.

Though, when dealing with poverty, how much does income matter? Some critics point out that rising incomes do not always translate into better health, better nutrition, and increased education. Income is a one-dimensional measure of poverty; also through this measure we cannot always detect the cause of it, the implications of it, or the steps necessary to lift the afflicted people out of it.

Researchers at the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative have put together a new way to understand and determine poverty called the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MDI). It uses improved availability of survey data to examine a number of different pre-determined aspects of poverty, such as the construction of households, access to a decent toilet, convenience of clean water, access to education, among a litany of other material, education, and health related factors.

Not only does this provide policymakers a better understanding of poverty factors, it now allows them to identify the actual aspects that the poor lack. Instead of trying to only boost income, there can be a prescriptive agenda to address specific things. Additionally, the index is demonstrating that it can reveal what countries citizens actually wallows in poverty, and what countries are doing a good job of enabling their people.

Looking at the chart, we can tell that the citizens of Tunisia, while receiving a low income, are being relatively well fed and educated. Though while other countries, like Ethiopia, may have rising incomes, standards of living are not rising correspondingly.

There is much to be done to refine the concept the MDI presents, but the information it is able to reveal is invaluable. Long term trends regarding health and education reform can be monitored. Just as equally, the Index is able to reflect the results of effective policy interventions quickly, and because the MPI measures outcomes directly, it will immediately reflect changes such as school enrolment, whereas it can take time for this to affect income. In all, the MDI is a great advancement in understanding how to meet the needs of the worlds poorest.

The Limits of Knowledge

2010-08-02T15:34:00.003-05:00

In an interesting perspective into the actions that determine policy, drive diplomacy, and which dictates foreign affairs-- (especially in wake of the wikileaks debacle)-- Daniel Ellsburg reveals an anecdote about what he told first-time government employee Henry Kissinger about the power and limitations of the security clearances he was about to receive.

First, you'll be exhilarated by some of this new information, and by having it all -- so much! incredible! -- suddenly available to you. But second, almost as fast, you will feel like a fool for having studied, written, talked about these subjects, criticized and analyzed decisions made by presidents for years without having known of the existence of all this information, which presidents and others had and you didn't, and which must have influenced their decisions in ways you couldn't even guess. In particular, you'll feel foolish for having literally rubbed shoulders for over a decade with some officials and consultants who did have access to all this information you didn't know about and didn't know they had, and you'll be stunned that they kept that secret from you so well.

This comes as no surprise, but it is remarkable to to hear from the inside what effect the mountains of data , unbeknown to the the world, have on the accessors. He also goes on to say "In the meantime it will have become very hard for you to learn from anybody who doesn't have these clearances. Because you'll be thinking as you listen to them: 'What would this man be telling me if he knew what I know?'. It seems that the typical critic is denied access to some of the most important and vital parts to his criticism.

Via Kottke.

A Demographic Shift in Israel

2010-08-02T14:14:00.004-05:00

By all accounts Tel Aviv is a glowing city, one that attracts the best young Israeli minds, and plays host to the nations burgeoning high-tech sector. Its one of the most 'global' cities in the world and a place given top accolades by National Geographic and Travel+Leisure, as a premier city to live in. Its continued growth demonstrates a stark contrast to the exodus seen by many other areas in the Israeli state.

This demographic shift stems partially from the threat that Hamas and Hezbollah pose to the outer edges of Israel. A secular, politically apathetic youth, seek refugee from the middle eastern Israeli-Palestinian drama in Tel Aviv's geographically neutral location. Dan Drezner observes some problems with this trend:

This migration within Israel creates a number of long-term policy headaches. First, residents of Tel Aviv simply don't care that much about making peace with the Palestinian Authority, Syria, or the rest of the Arab world. Tel Aviv is almost exclusively Jewish, it's too far south for Hezbollah to hit and too far north for Hamas to hit. You can live in Tel Aviv and not think about long-term security concerns - which is exactly what most Israelis do. This is the majority of the population, and they're politically apathetic

The fear of a growing number of policymakers is that this will idealistically divide a nation historically united with a Zionist sentiment. As the most strategic parts of the country take a population hit, leverage in compromise talks will dissipate. Additionally, the demographics of these remaining areas are seeing an influx of the ultra-Orthodox and Israeli nationalists-- those interested in preserving a Greater Israel. This, of course, is all setting the stage for messy friction between the hardline Israelis and the Palestinians.

A Revival of Mexico City's Atmosphere

2010-08-02T09:59:00.003-05:00

Mexico City, once home to one of the most polluted atmospheres in the world, is starting to see some results from a greener attitude. Located in the vast Valley of Mexico, 1.5 miles above sea level, Mexico's capital and largest city is especially vulnerable to an artificially dirtied atmosphere due to its thin air and surrounding wall of mountains.

In the early 1990's the national ozone limited was breached nine days out of ten, resulting health problems were rampant, and wildlife was a rare sight in city skies. Even dubbed by the UN in 1996 as the 'worlds worst city for children.' This sentiment, along with actually physical manifestations of pollution caused millions to flee to outlying suburbs and different cities altogether.

Though in recent years, the smog has begun to lift. This is chiefly due to new emission standards set by city government officials, taxi incentives to encourage the use of electric technology, and a more bike/pedestrian friendly infrastructure. Every Sunday 22km of roads in the centre are roped off for bikes and pedestrians, and the all but the cities newest cars are barred from driving on the streets one day each week. Public transportation infrastructure has been expanded, included are four new subway lines and a network of suburban trains.

Though these efforts come in the face of what mayor Marcelo Ebrard calls 'life and death situations', Mexico has been considered by many to be a leading figure in the race for climate change and an excellent example of a large scale sustainable development.

Despite all the good news and the promising trend of change, Mexico City still is reaping the consequences of its past misdeeds, with pollution still dangerously high and industry still highly unregulated. It will take long term commitment to fuel lasting change, and instill a culture of sustainability in the lifestyle of residents.

Weekend Reads

2010-07-30T11:50:00.000-05:00

Interesting things I've read throughout the week in economic development, the environment, and geography.

Living in a Chinese Jail

2010-07-30T11:48:00.000-05:00

Guo Xinshui gives insight to his deplorable experiences in the Chinese detention system:

You can go for two or three years in a detention center without eating one green vegetable. There are a lot of department and bureau level figures in there. Everyone always talked about mixed spinach. It made our mouths water. Your hair goes white after half a year in there. One reason is because you’re worried about your case. The other is the bad nutrition.

There’s no fresh air in there. Each person’s skin is white as snow because we don’t get any sunlight. There’s one building that lets in light through a window on winter mornings. It lasts for about ten minutes. We all took turns sunning ourselves.

The living conditions are deplorable. Except for deaths purely from violence, there are two other main reasons: prisoners are under extreme mental stress and the nutrition they get is extremely poor.

Officers, along with armed with sub-machine guns, only came into cells when looking for contraband. Everyone squatted in the corner with their heads down. If anyone looked up they got knocked with a rubber stick. It was really humiliating. We weren’t criminals. We were suspects.

Issues of prison tyrants, poor nutrition, and living conditions are often rampant in these prisons. There is no assumption of innocence and despite efforts of Chinese central authorities to stamp out such practices, there is still widespread persistence.

State of the Climate

2010-07-30T10:44:00.006-05:00

This past month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their annual report on the state of the climate for the previous year. Resulting in 200+ pages of graphs, analysis and scientific data on trends in global temperature, weather patterns, CO2 concentration, among other things. The report summary provides a more accessible picture of the climate, which, according to the study, is decidedly warming.

Simplifying things even further, the Economist siphons the data down to decadal averages, and makes clear the uncertainties by showing the 95% confidence ranges on those averages.

There is a clear upward skew to the charted data. The NOAA describes climate as long-term average of weather patterns, though theses patterns may vary from year to year as a result of natural variations, the telling indicators of a warming or changing climate reveal themselves in the long term. Scientists analyze increases in Troposphere temperature, humidity, ocean heat content, sea-surface temperature-- and decreases in various ice and snow related factors as described in the report.

It is clear that there is a change in these patterns from years previous, however the real debate within scientific communities lies within determining the cyclical nature of these variables. Does the data we've compiled signify long term climate change? Or is our window of knowledge and data to small to identify any real predictive factors. An increased understanding of the chaotic nature of weather and its long term manifestations into climate change is continuing to elude even the best scientific models.

Debate will always rage, even after apparent and irreversible damage has been betrothed upon global well-being. What is clear, however, is that as average temperature and accompanying variables continue the trends they have set forth through the previous few decades, will will see a continually chaotic weather system around the globe.

The Lottery of Oil Discovery

2010-07-29T11:46:00.004-05:00

Matthew Stevenson, a former denizen of the oil industry and now writer, lends perspective from his experience with the arbitrary nature of operations in oil drilling.

How often do oil men hit oil? Obviously, many wells hit pay dirt. Nonetheless, I spent fifteen years following drilling adventures and no one I came across ever shouted “Eureka!”. Instead, I was introduced to the concept of the “dry hole,” a noble but unsuccessful effort to tap into the riches of the earthen core, which costs about eight million dollars a whack.

When a hole comes back empty, oil men generally agree that failure is key to the industry, that the faults were not their own, and that next time, with another eight or eighty million to sink into the ground, they will do things differently, such as actually study the geological formations, consult earlier drillers, prepare a budget, or call some top notch oilman who has retired to Wyoming. Many oil meetings end with someone saying, “Let’s get Swede over here.”

Oil men, however, take a fair amount of pleasure in losing huge sums of money. It’s part of the culture to have lost $100 million in the Caspian or $300 million in the Black Sea. It shows the world that their pockets are as deep as their drill bits.

In practice, most oil companies are lotteries with gas stations.

It seems chance encounters are more apt to dictate the extraction of oil, than regimented tried and true methods. The philosophy of pouring money into the cauldron hoping for a return is not a one that prospers in the long term.

How Long Will North Korea Last?

2010-07-29T10:06:00.004-05:00

Twenty years ago, the Wall Street Journal's vaunted political economist, Nicholas Eberstadt, ran an article about North Korea's 'coming collapse' -- a seemingly sure occurrence after the fall of the Soviet Union, and an abandonment of the Chinese North Korean aid program. Yet, somewhat implausibly North Korea and its totalitarianism still persist 65 years after its establishment. Kim Il-sung's dictatorship was passed to his now ailing son, Kim Jong-il, and the baton looks to be exchanged once again to Il-sung's third son, Kim Jong-un.

The National Post calls North Korea's prevalence a relic of the 2oth century, an antique among nations, somehow a miserable success if not just for sheer endurance. The internal happenings of the nation are shrouded in secrecy, in remains illegal for a North Korean citizen to even speak with a foreigner. North Koreans dwell in an isolated world, completely ignorant and oblivious to anything surrounding them-- one reason children sang a song beginning, “We have nothing to envy in the world.” Through his tenure as leader, Kim Il-sung promoted himself as divine, both surprising and confusing the people in the wake of his death in 1994.

Few foreigners are ever allowed in the country, diplomatic visitors are the rare exception. Even rarer are journalists, who sometime manage to get in both with and without consent. Recently VICE, an independent Brooklyn based media company, was allowed unprecedented access, proving for fascinating reporting-- though even they were always kept within predetermined governmental destinations.

This divide between North Koreans and anything foreign has served Kim Jong-il's purpose to demonize outside influence and brainwash the population. Author Babara Demick recounts former citizens lives in her award winning book, Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea-- a kindergarten teacher reports that the hardest part of her job was watching her pupils die of starvation and a pediatrician says much the same about her patients.Yet, most of these survivors acknowledge that for a long time they believed what the regime told them.

The international reality is that North Korea does indeed continue to exist, and constructing successful policy to keep the oft delinquent nation at bay is essential. Barack Obama, the 11th US president to deal with the regime, recently announced new sanctions against the country aimed at preventing any escalating conflict with South Korea. Soured relations were a result of an purported North Korean attack on the South, sinking a warship and killing 46 sailors. Tensions have historically run high between the two Korea's, separated only by only by a narrow strip of 'demilitarized' land running along the 38th parallel.

Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, paid a visit to the area earlier this week in order to encourage international talks about North Korea's maligned nuclear program and confirm additional sanctions. The goal was to target sanctions toward alcohol, tobacco, and luxury goods in the country that the ruling elite enjoy while their people starve. Mrs. Clinton offered a peace treaty, normal relations with the United States and an end to sanctions — if the North ended its belligerence and took irreversible steps to end attempts to build atomic weapons.

As North Korea continues to go about its errant ways, international leaders must be careful in balancing the interests of trade in the region-- as the lone major ally of North Korea remains China. The Obama administration is correct on its hard line approach toward the county, though its unlikely that the small relic of totalitarianism would do much damage in the event of any real conflict, save that of possible destroying itself.

'Burgernomics'

2010-07-28T13:47:00.006-05:00

The Big Mac Index, published by the Economist, gauges purchasing power parity using the price McDonalds sets for Big Macs in various countries. The idea is that by looking at what foreign locals pay for a Big Mac in comparison to what Americans pay, we can get an idea of currency valuation in relation to the dollar. Typically economists uses a basket of goods to determine the PPP,local inputs such as rent and wages aside the almost ubiquitous Big Mac provides a simple way to assess fair value.

Asia is still the cheapest place to buy a Big Mac, Hong Kong and China providing the burger for under two dollars. At $1.95 in China at current exchange rates and $3.73 in America, the Yuan is undervalued by about 48%. Weaker currency improves the competitiveness of a country by making exports cheaper and encourages domestic consumers to switch from expensive imports to domestic goods. The challenge for many Western countries, especially in Europe, is to spur on economic growth by increasing exports. With the Euro so overvalued, in relation to developing countries, debt grows in the Euro Zone and credit gets frosty-- not the picture of growth many nations seek.

In fact the only emerging market currency in The Economist’s mix that was overvalued was Brazil’s real. “With interest rates high — the policy rate now stands at 10.75% — Brazil has attracted lots of attention from yield-hungry investors,” according to the article accompanying the new index release. “Burgernomics suggests that the real is overvalued by 31%.”

Topping the list with the most expensive Big Macs are the Scandinavian countries. It would cost a Norwegian 45 kroner or $7.20 to curb their hunger, twice as much as the Americans across the Atlantic and to the south.

Who Has the Renewable Energy Wealth?

2010-07-28T11:44:00.005-05:00

3TIER maps the wind, solar, and hydro resources throughout the globe.

(click here for the large version)

Take a good look at these three maps, as oil and natural gas reserves peak and eventually begin to dwindle the geopolitics of alternative energy resources will become one of the most paramount issues of the age. Spending money on wind, solar, and hydro infrastructure is a not so different cost wise from oil investment, especially as companies both private and public seek increasingly difficult extraction methods (oil tar sands, deep sea drilling, arctic mining, etc). However the outlay of capital allocation for energy generation has always and will continue to go to the most efficient, cost-effective method availed-- this hopefully translating into eventual adoption of green energy.

Weening the world of oil before peak production will help shoulder the burden of cost consumers and nations will experience when the transition to renewables plays a larger role. As the world deliberates on an alternative energy infrastructure currently propped up by subsidy, decisions of real investment will be soon made-- candidates drawn for rich resources will require political stability, an ease of doing business, and a kind eye for foreign direct investment. Hopefully turning parts of the world devoid of any previous value, swaths of desert in the Sahara for example, into integral players in the world energy market.

Mapping Crime as Elevation

2010-07-28T10:34:00.002-05:00

Doug McCune looks at San Francisco crime levels in a new way. 2009 crime data was taken and associated with a city map, creating a topographical illustration of differential crime rates. The mountain ridges of wrongdoing depict areas of high crime. McCune points out ridges of crime along Mission Street, observing narcotics as a more concentrated form of illicit activity, while vehicle theft is more dispersed throughout.

This is an interesting way to present geographically represented data. Using elevation as an indicator of high incidence, nearly an data set could be represented topographically with relation to its population.

The Rise of African Democracy

2010-07-27T15:06:00.003-05:00

In the past 10 years coups throughout Africa have decreased dramatically and the number of elections has increased. The African people, it seems, are demanding to play a larger role in the way they are governed. This call for leadership accountability is a growing trend throughout Africa, though authoritarian states still hold the continent in a grip, the grasp is loosening as many nations gear up for elections in the coming months. Burundi, Guinea, Somaliland and Ethiopia just having completed successful democratic voting, now look to their leaders for empowerment. Rwanda, Tanzania, Chad, and several others also look to deliberate leaders via democratic methods in the next few months.

The catalyst of this new political accountability come from both African fury with current regimes and pressure from the outside, as international aid is often tied to progress in governance and democracy. In 2007 Nigerian voters forced People’s Democratic Party officials to make concessions after outrage was expressed over the running of the government’s charade election. Countries like Ghana and Mali are kept democratically responsible by the billions of dollars of aid that America’s Millennium Challenge Account has provided since 2002. Good governance and fair elections have also been encouraged by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as they now punish member states for coup attempts.

As democracy grows, Africa still has the political problems that have plagued it for decades, namely the refusal of a defeated incumbent to accept defeat and bow out. This old habit of ‘democratic’ African leaders inspires election fraud, internal violence, and a mistrust of democracy by constituents. The remedy to this in not clear, but necessary contributing factor for change is the formation of African economic unions, like the ECOWAS and the Eastern African Community (EAC). A sure way to increase civil liberties, economic well being, and national wealth is stability in the political arena, as prosperity takes a foothold, so will change.

World Nuclear Explosions: 1945-1998

2010-07-27T12:59:00.001-05:00

Depicting the number of nuclear explosions conducted in various parts of the globe from 1954-1998, Isao Hashimoto's video gives a perspective of the scope of world nuclear testing. Things really start to get interesting around 1960.

Urbanization in Low Elevation Coastal Zones

2010-07-27T10:52:00.004-05:00

The Columbia University Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center Gridded Population of the World and the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) recently compiled data to examine the urban landscape of the globe. It is estimated that 2.7% of the world's land is occupied by urban development, amounting to over 3.5 million square kilometers. Critics call the GRUMP study an over estimate and point to other data sets with more conservative statements.

However, the fact remains that world urbanization is continually growing-- putting a strain on high population areas. Low elevation coastal zones with latge population density concentrations are especially vulnerable to changing rising tides and a changing environment. Maps generated by the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) remote sensing data depict LECZ population estimates.

Within the 10m sea level zone Bangladesh has extremely high population exposure and a poor national infrastructure to combat even the slightest tide changes. In Europe the low lying Netherlands has very large proportion of its population living in a LECZ. Similar stories are illustrated across Asia, Europe, and even New York City.The two issues, urbanization and rising tides-- the possible cause and the potential effect, have the prospect to interact with each other in a destructive fashion.

Why Soccer Doesn't Explain the World

2010-07-22T10:58:00.003-05:00

In Franklin Foer's book How Soccer Changed the World, he paints a picture of game entrenched in a chaotic nationalistic fervor. Soccer, as Foer saw it, was a state source of crime, a generator political agendas, and inspiration for perpetual ironclad grudges. Of course, that was an eternal six years ago and with the 2010 World Cup coming to a close a few weeks ago, a whole new attitude in the game is developing. A globalized way to play soccer that doesn't include racism, ethnic or nationalist superiority claims, or violent rioting clashes. Simon Kuper writes:

The World Cup has gone from nationalist frenzy to universal carnival, a sort of cheesy "We Are the World" video brought to life. Nobody seems to hate Germany anymore, and anyway, the country had the most multicultural team in the tournament. There were barely any colonial occupiers playing (a U.S.-Afghanistan game would have been interesting but the Afghan team didn't even qualify). So why have the geopolitics drained from soccer? First, because the world has changed. The era of dictatorships, hypernationalism, country vs. country wars, and festering resentments held over from World War II is passing. Most wars today are civil wars.

Crucially, soccer is changing too. The World Cup used to set different national styles against each other. The Dutch attacked, the Italians defended, the Germans played badly and won, the Latin Americans dribbled, and the English huffed and puffed and screwed up. Inevitably, everyone felt that everyone else's style was somehow immoral, even evil.These days, however, the World Cup rewards globalization, and the homogenization of styles helped make this a post-nationalist World Cup.

Everyone plays much the same way now (with the exception of the English, who still huff and puff and screw up.) Teams like the United States, Paraguay, and Japan have doubled down on boring, athletically honed, well-organized Western European soccer in recent years. In South Africa, the Dutch defended, the Germans played well and lost, and the Latin Americans mostly stopped dribbling.

The key to success in modern soccer seems to be to dilute your inherited national style. Spain, for instance, won the World Cup playing a version of Dutch passing soccer that had been brought into the country by generations of Dutch players and coaches at clubs in Barcelona. It was the countries that refused to learn much from abroad, countries that still played in distinctive national styles -- dumb long-ball England, paceless Argentina -- that lost. There was still some nationalism about, but mostly, winning a game doesn't prove that your race is superior to other races. It's just a good excuse to dance on the streets.

Teams are now a melting pot of talent and of style of play. There has been a global export of what works for other teams. It is fortunate that the world, for the most part, has promoted soccer to the role of global unifier as opposed to a platform for political agendas and ethnic proving grounds.

Egypt: A Country in Limbo

2010-07-21T15:17:00.004-05:00

The Egyptian Dilemma

Egypt occupies a unique position in the world geopolitical landscape, an African country by nature but a Middle Eastern country by culture. Its open relations and good terms with Western countries put it in a position to mediate for the United States between Israeli interests and Islamic Arab sentiments. As the controller of the Suez Canal, it manages the only link for efficient shipping transport between the European world, and Asia and the Middle East. Surprisingly, with its mostly barren desert backdrop, Egypt has been afforded a bounty of natural resources, many of which have yet to be tapped into. As a result of all this, the nation should seemingly have plenty of political pull in the international landscape. However, due to prior commitments and a delicate balance of power in the region, Egyptian leaders have recently been but in a tight spot with foreign policy. Similarly, at home Egypt is seeing credible advancement in standard of living, but millions still wrestle with problems stemming from a growing income gap.

Ever since the decline of the Pharaohs some 3000 years ago, Egypt has been a country continually conquered. The Assyrians, Persians, Greeks, Romans, Muslim Arabs, Ottoman Turks, Napoleon’s France, and Britain all took turns ruling the region. A post cold-war Egypt has fallen under the influence of the American policy chiefs. With over $60 billion of economic and military aid provided over the years, the US has leveraged Egypt to act as a stabilizing factor in an unstable region. Whenever something goes wrong in the Middle East, Western leaders come flocking to the country to convene summits, conferences, and mediating sessions to urge the Arab neighbors to soften their tone. The pressure on Egypt exists from both side, a US pro-Israeli agenda advocating Egyptian leaders to keep the peace and an Arab Muslim influence from neighbors and a large majority of the home population calling for abandonment of Western commitments.

An important illustration of this divide is Egypt’s Gaza policy. Highly unpopular at home, but reluctantly supported by long-standing President Hosni Mubarak, the policy calls for Egypt to squeeze Hamas in Gaza with tight border controls and expensive steel barriers. Recent loosing of the guidelines indicate government leaders slipping from Western sway and heeding cries from within the border.

Problems in Politics, Solutions in Natural Resources?

However, the Egyptian government isn’t always democratic as they would have the West believe. President Mubarak has grasped onto power for the past 30 years and voter turnout in the ‘democratic’ elections hovered around 20% of registered voters (only 40% of eligible voters are registered) this past year. This apathy mainly stems from an inability of political opponents to arise, with Mr. Mubarak nabbing 89% of the popular vote in the latest election. Blatant police intervention at polling centers administer a sure victory for the incumbent and opposition who does manage to get a seat in parliament is apt to take in under the table funds from Mubarak’s established government—the National Democratic Party.

Despite the governmental turmoil, Egypt sits on the edge of growth as natural resources within the country become feasibly accessed. The fertile Nile Valley produces some of the highest crop yields in the world, and as Egyptian farmers advance in agriculture methods, exports increasing accordingly. Though most of the country is covered in an expanse of desert, this barren inhospitality vie’s as one of the most stable , sun-drenched spots in the world for a possible solar farm to power Europe. Wind power too is a burgeoning feasibility as Egypt seeks to obtain 20% of its energy from clean sources by 2020. Not overly dependent on oil and natural gas, with it just making up 15% of GDP, Egypt is shielded from international price volatility that toys with neighboring Arab nations. Gold is another promising resource edging toward an explosion in output as geologist have recently discovered a reserve along the banks of the Red Sea with a value of over $16 billion and the hope of even more gold-bearing formations in the region.

High Prospects, Steep Challenges

A clear and bright future awaits the Egyptian economy, but the allocation of its earned wealth is a prospect that could be a dour boon to the society. Millions remain poor and lack the education to change their circumstance. The fault lies in a system that failed to adopt proven Western education methods early on and is now racing to catch up. A flourishing private school system needs to be met with an equally effective public one. However, the is hope as Egypt approaches the 75% literacy rate, considered a threshold for faster economic growth, human development, and political transition.

In all, Egypt’s position both economically and geopolitically serves it future as one with potential to lift millions out of poverty and effect positive change in a region historically volatile.

Income Distribution in US Cities

2010-07-21T10:30:00.002-05:00

Radical Cartography has depicted city per capita income variations in a donut map. Probing the idea that a city will create concentric rings of wealth and poverty, with the rich both in the suburbs and in the "revitalized" downtown, and the poor stuck in between. This study in urban geography does indeed find 'wedges' of wealth occupying a continuous slice exiting the city. Interestingly, RC point out-- it also seems that poverty donuts all tend to have about a five-mile radius, regardless of the size of the city. Perhaps this is the practical limit for commuting without a car?

Dark blue represents an income of $6,000 at the bottom of the scale, the income per capita represented increases correspondingly as the blue grows lighter, into light pink, and dark purple/red depicts greater than $100,000 income/capita at the highest income of the scale.

You can see a clear representation of the suburbs, and the wealth that they bear. Additionally, certain downtown areas are partitioned for the wealthy and gentrified sections are somewhat identifiable. In many south and southwestern US cities, like Dallas-Fort Worth (shown above), Atlanta, Phoenix, San Diego (shown here)-- you can see that the income distribution of wealth resides north of the city, likely due to a heavy newly immigrated Hispanic population.

As prosperity grows, a challenge to city governments is to prevent a large divide in the rich and poor, averting to wide of an income gap. Also to allocate public transportation for those who will use it, and thinking in sustainable ways to encourage suburban dwellers to utilize green commuting.

Is the era of cheap Chinese labour over?

2010-07-21T09:41:00.003-05:00

The Economist invites guests to take part in a discussion over wages and the changing landscape in China. Some interesting perspectives have emerged...

Tyler Cowen on rising productivity:

Chinese labour is still pretty cheap, at least by Western standards. To give an example, the minimum wage in Shenzen—a very active economic area—is still only $160 a month and in other parts of China it runs even lower. It’s not that all Chinese wages are so low but overall China is a much poorer country than most people think. It’s not even close to having the average wages of, say, Mexico.

Here’s another way to explain why the concept of cheap wages can so quickly become misleading. If you’re looking to buy a Mercedes-Benz, for instance, German labour is the cheapest in the world for that goal.

Ricardo Hausmann on product mix :

While wages in China may be going up, the wages of the countries with which China is effectively competing on a product-by-product basis have also been going up because the export package has become more sophisticated. China might have become expensive for many simple garments, but it may be still quite cheap for semiconductors, cars and software development.

Lant Pritchett on India’s development:

Assuming China's wages and other factors combine to push it up out of the niche the impact on the global market hinges entirely on India. India has the demographic potential to fill in everything China leaves behind. So far they are still in the fat of the demographic pyramid, they are still substantially under-urbanised (three quarters rural), have had rapidly rising schooling levels, has an economy amazingly concentrated in services that could move into manufacturing, has incredibly low wages except at the very top end—and most obviously have more than a billion people. So, if India gets its act together no one can breathe a sigh of relief at the rising wages in China.

As many of the commentators have brought to light, wages in China are almost certainly increasing relative to the rest of 'cheap' labor around the world. Though again, cheap labor for a cotton shirt is far different than cheap labor for a computer or a Mercedes-Benz. As China grows, and its nationals acquire new skills it is likely that labor will continue to be a good bargain to certain producers. Lant Prittchett points out that looking at the way the India's economy and workforce is currently developing, they will fill the void that China leaves in its advancing wake.

Five Big Questions About Contemporary World Politics

2010-07-20T12:37:00.005-05:00

Foreign Policy's Stephen Walt takes a look at five looming issues that will directly affect US foreign policy. The American response will dictate what direction and role they will play around the globe in future years.

1. Where is the EU project headed? | The European Union was introduced to further regional unity and economic prowess, though some say the high water mark has passed, other believe that current difficulties will invite further unity and integration. The former path could lead to the reemergence of certain European powers, warranting more diplomatic attention from the US.

2. If China's power continues to rise, how easy will it be to get Asian states to balance against it? | As China emerges as an Asian power, an American concern lies with neighboring Asian sates as they may be coerced into choosing sides, providing China the opportunity to grow a "sphere of influence" in the region. Balance of power (or balance of threat) is key for global stability.

Leverage gained by Southeast Asian states from this concern could provoke current allies to request disproportionate US economic commitment, while threating to withdraw US support.

3. What's the relationship between U.S. defense spending, the deficit, and America's economic health and well-being? | Many people believe that the United States is spending way too much on national security, especially given the 2008 recession, the soaring budget deficit, the impending retirement of the baby boomers, the looming fiscal problems facing states and local governments, and the need to rebuild infrastructure and improve U.S. education.

A few problems with this exist, cutting defense spending dramatically would put people out of work and could make the recession worse. Moreover, cutting defense doesn't help with the budget deficit if the money just gets shifted into entitlement programs. Either way, the US must decide on a sustainable action.

4. If the U.S. disengaged from key areas in the Muslim world -- most notably Iraq and Afghanistan -- would the threat of anti-American terrorism rise or fall? | It can be said that the US's military presence in these areas is one of the big reasons (along with our unconditional support for Israel and our close ties with several Arab governments) why we have a terrorism problem in the first place. Again, two schools of through prevail, some say a reduced military footprint equals less terrorism, and other say withdrawl would prove an Al-Qaeda 'moral booster' and facilitate their recruitment and make them more ambitious, and encourage them to "follow us home."

5. Is the era of U.S. primacy over? How will the end of post-Cold War primacy affect its grand strategy and foreign policy? | Indeed, "The United States will remain the world's most powerful state for some time to come. Its economy will be the world's largest until 2030 at least, and its per capita income will be much higher than that of other potential rivals (meaning there is great potential wealth that can be mobilized for national purposes). Unlike Europe, Japan, and Russia, the U.S. population will continue to grow and will not as old. And it will take a great deal of time before any other country amasses global military capabilities akin to ours."

However, changes are ahead as new global powers emerge, WMD's become more prevalent, and world policy is no longer dictated solely by US leadership. Flexibility and attention to the pulse of the international community is key in 'fitting in'-- black-and-white, good vs. evil crusades may need to be displaced by more humility and restraint. America will have to deal with a slightly more even distribution of power and a messier global order.

International Perceptions of Chinese Growth

2010-07-20T11:02:00.003-05:00

A new Pew survey assess national attitudes on Chinese growth and development, both militarily and economically . The consensus is interesting, it seems that concerns about China’s economic might are high among publics in the U.S. and Europe, though several developing countries, majorities consider China’s growing economic strength a good thing. Looking at the chart:

Turkey is one of the few countries that view Chinese growth both economically and militarily entirely as a bad thing. It seems the trend is few countries see China's military growth as a good thing. A notable exception includes Pakistan, who likely would be looking towards the Chinese north for arms and military technology to keep India at bay. Included African nations, Kenya and Nigeria, seem to have a generally positive view to an increasingly armed China-- though the capital injections that China is providing the countries economies and infrastructures certainly propels a positive sentiment.

There is no doubt that China's growing presence on the world stage has generated a bag of mixed feelings, though as China grows in the next few decades into on of the worlds largest consumer markets-- many envisage a softening of opinion. It will be up to China to engender a smooth transition of economic marketplaces. After all China has more people than the whole of the rich world put together.

----

In the same Pew Study, Barack Obama continues to be more popular abroad than at home.

Vanishing Himalayan Glaciers

2010-07-19T16:37:00.007-05:00

The powerful force that, throughout millions of years, carved through one of the most geographically imposing features on earth is showing signs of waning away. The Himalayan glaciers are renowned for their beauty, immensity, and remote locations. They have supplied the fertile agricultural areas in Indian and Pakistan their watershed along with the life of the innumerable rivers they begin.

Recent studies demonstrate that they are disappearing, or at least have decline in mass from 50 and 100 years ago. The Asia Society and its Glacial Research Imaging Project (GRIP) has have retraced the steps of climbing and photographic pioneers, the first individuals to capture this mammoth sub-polar ice reserve, and have captured new images that precisely match the early photographic records. Displaying a stark contrast in the span of 50 years, the images depict the exact reproduction (down to the GPS coordinates) of these early explorers perspectives.

The GRIP has used comparative photography to understand the nature of the changing topography, The surface area of glaciers in these high altitude valleys is often covered by layers of debris or snow. When determining the full measure of loss in the ice mass in photos studied, researchers looked not only at how far the glaciers have receded, but at the surrounding valley walls. In many cases, the loss in depth is upwards of 300 vertical feet. Looking at how they determine the glacial loss:

To understand the scale of immensity these glaciers present, the GRIP provided the following photos. The yellow square in the first photo below is shown in detail in the second photo.

This not only illustrates the vastness of the Main Rongbuk Glacier, but it also demonstrates the colossal loss. There are more photo's on the NY Times Lens blog.

The loss of these glaciers, whether humans greenhouse gases be at fault or not, will resonate as the natural ebb and flow of water in the India-Pakistan-Bangladesh region is affected. As much as 1/5th of the worlds population live in this area, and many are dependent with their lives on the seasons that Himalayas and their sub-polar ice cap dictate. As an issue that the Asia Society seeks to raise awareness about, the international community must understand that this is more than preserving natures virility, it is about creating sustainability in one of the most populated, poor, and agriculturally dependent regions in the world.

On Killing Birds

2010-07-19T13:14:00.004-05:00

Matt Ridley says:

If BP really wants to kill birds, it should indeed go beyond petroleum and into wind, an industry that kills far more rare birds per joule of energy produced than oil does.

Indeed, it seems that the oil industry has very little effect on the well-being of birds in comparison to other, both human and non-human, activities. Tyler Cowan also contributes:

Number of birds killed by the BP oil spill: at least 2,188 and counting.

Number of birds killed by wind farms: 10,000-40,000 annually.

Number of birds killed by cars: 80 million annually.

Number of birds killed by cats: Hundreds of millions to 1 billion annually.

Don't worry there is some good news.

Number of birds killed by fisheries: tens to hundreds of thousands annually (fortunately for the birds, some of these fisheries are now shut down).

Granted, oil covered birds do provide a better photo-op for newspaper coverage-- although the amount of damage done by the BP oil spill to the bird population may be relatively minimal, its effect on other area wildlife is still quite significant. I am inclined to think that we should take our bird sympathy inspired anger out on the cats, as they have killed almost a million times more birds this year than BP has.

Kyrgyzstan: Teetering on the Edge

2010-07-19T10:35:00.005-05:00

In recent months, Kyrgyzstan has seen a violent ethnic upsurge, fleeing refugees, and after a lull in tensions, a cautious state approval of a new constitution. Now newly inaugurated President Roza Otunbayeva faces staggering political and economic challenges, including the task of smoothing over relations with southern minority Uzbeks and majority ethnic Kyrgyis. Without economic resurgence and its necessary precursor, political stability in a historically tumultuous region, the interim government has little chance of staving off more conflict, or worse-- civil war.

As Ms. Otunbayeva busies her self with faith building and productive compromise with the masses, the international community has stayed noticeably silent in providing any type of aid, humanitarian or other. NATO, the European Union, Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization all declined to send peacekeepers. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (a watchdog and security organization in the Central Asian arena) has done nothing, nor has Turkish-led Conference for Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia-- each of these institutions lacks the broad-based membership, local credibility and organizational capacity to be effective.

Eyes now turn to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) for structuring an international response to the crisis. The OSCE is likely the mos capable organization to work efficiently and effectively in Kyrgyzstan, having assisted in quelling the April violence and positively influencing policy since early 1998. Piloted by joint US-Russian leadership, common ground will help coordinate long term strategy.

Zimbabwe's Economic Crutch

2010-07-16T11:57:00.005-05:00

Zimbabwe has historically been one of the world’s largest producers of diamonds, having 1/4th of the worlds diamond supply within their borders, much of the country’s economic wealth has been derived from the clear, hard rock.

Recently Zimbabwe and its President Robert Mugabe have had a swirl of controversy surround its diamond mining operations. The Kimberley Process, an international diamond certification scheme, revoked authorized of international sales amid allegations of killings, human rights violations and corruption in the Eastern Zimbabwe diamond fields. A defiant Mr. Mugabe responded with a continued economic determination, telling the joint governmental trade group: “No one should doubt our resolve to sell our diamonds". Shrugging off sanctions and drawing criticism from around the world, Mugabe believes that the diamond sales have "huge potential" to revive the economy.

But should Zimbabwe rely so heavily on its blighted diamond operations to propel the countries prosperities forward? Zimbabwe was once a beacon of transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa, balancing its exports with commodities and a healthy diamond trade-- though after economic decline and recently chronic hyperinflation economic growth, for the current leaders, is a political necessity. Leaning on an internationally criticized diamond operations may not the best long term economic tactic, but it certainly is a move aimed helping Mr. Mugabe cling to power in the short term.

A return to former economic health is the ultimate goal for Robert Mugabe, though some speak of an foreign political coalition to engineer his exit as the only solution. Drawing similarities from neighboring country South Africa, Zimbabwe would likely only prosper with a diversified economy and a leader willing to take those steps. Mr. Mugabe's insistence to continue the sale of his 'conflict diamonds' will almost certainly not lead to prosperity for the country, in its stead he should look to preserve his political power in a more sustainable form of economic growth.

A New Symbol For India's Currency

2010-07-16T11:23:00.004-05:00

If you ever wondered how currency symbols came to be, here is a first hand birthing of one. The Indian Federal Cabinet approved a new symbol for the Indian rupee this past week.

Chosen after a nationwide competition, it consists of an amalgam of the Devnagiri 'Ra' and the Roman capital 'R' without the stem.

It was designed by D. Udaya Kumar, a student at the Indian Institute of Technology, who studied typography, scripts and ancient printing methods...Mr. Kumar’s winning entry was picked from more than 3,000 submissions and five finalists, and approved by the India’s top government ministers on Thursday. Mr. Kumar, who begins teaching as an assistant professor at his alma mater on Friday, told a local news channel it was a “great honor” to be part of India’s history. He takes home a prize of 250,000 rupees, or about $5,363.

Some say that it could take several years for the adoption of the currency symbol to take place. The first step toward universal adoption take place when not-for-profit organization Unicode International, approves it for use in the standard computer coding they maintain, representing many of the world’s languages. Additionally, Indian keyboard manufacturers will be encouraged to include it new products.

Capital Punishment in Saudi Arabia

2010-07-15T13:00:00.006-05:00

As an almost universal practice in the Middle Eastern region, capital punishment or death by order of the state, continues to assert its cultural and religious influence over the punishment of crimes. Saudi Arabia still maintains a hard line approach, employing public beheadings by way of sword:

Saudi Arabia, one of the last places on earth where capital punishment is a public spectacle. Decapitation awaits murderers, but the death penalty also applies to many other crimes, such as armed robbery, rape, adultery, drug use and trafficking, and renouncing Islam. There’s a woman on death row now for witchcraft, and the charge is based partly on a man’s accusation that her spell made him impotent.

Saudi Arabia executed some 1,750 convicts between 1985 and 2008, yet reliable information about the practice is scarce. In Riyadh, beheadings happen at 9 a.m. any given day of the week, and there is no advance notice. There is also no written penal code, so questions of illegality depend on the on-the-spot interpretations of police and judges.

China’s Overbearing Hydropower Ambitions

2010-07-15T10:41:00.003-05:00

The Salween, the Mekong, and the Yangzi—three rivers that come thundering out of the Tibetan plateau, rolling through Yunnan in steep valleys, eventually twisting to their separate and distant tributaries. The Salween emptying through Myanmar in the south, the Mekong flowing through Vietnam to the sea, and the Yangzi heading east to deposit its contents near Shanghai-- such powerful and accessible rivers have prompted the Chinese to boost their hydropower energy ambitions.

On the Mekong, the Chinese have already planned to build eight dams-- Xishuangbanna the new Jinghong dam has just started operating and further up, Xiaowandam will be finished by 2013. Xiaowandam will be the highest arched dam in the world and second largest hydro energy project behind the Yangzi’s controversial Three Gorges Dam. The Salween already has 13 proposals for new dams despite strident local protests about the associated social and environmental costs.

China has been dictatorial when dealing with protesters—of the almost 500,000 locals who are being displaced (up to 4 million affected) due to large hydroelectric projects, many are threatened with less compensation or even jail. Members of the press, academics, and even NGO representatives have all remained mum on the subject for fear of having their names published. Even China’s bordering neighbors have a bone to pick with the larger country’s river manipulation. As the Mekong basin is the greatest inland fishing region in the world-- distraught Thai, Laotian and Cambodian fisherman and farmers blame Chinese dams for killing off fish stocks, cutting irrigation and disrupting livelihoods. Vietnam is no more excited than its Southeast Asian fellows, accusing China of holding some of the dry season flow back, hindering crop growth.

Despite the criticism that China takes, some of these surrounding countries problems are a result of their own poor agricultural and fishing malfeasances. Although hydropower can be an excellent source of clean energy, if companies don’t tread carefully (and sometimes, even if they do), biodiversity, natural geography, and human populations can be irreversible affected.

Quality of Death Index

2010-07-14T16:52:00.003-05:00

Its proving to to be a day of indexes.

Earlier today The Economist published an index ranking the quality of care for the dying. Based on research done by the Economist Intelligence Unit (the full pdf research white paper available for free download), the index rates 40 mostly rich countries on honesty of prognosis, opioid and pain killer usage, and hospice care. Britain tops the rankings in creating a comfortable dying environment, though countries like Denmark and Finland rank lower because they concentrate more on preventing death than on helping people die without suffering pain, discomfort and distress.

Some challenges many nations face in improving end of life quality lie within cultural inclinations and perceptions of death. In China, for example, death and dying are stigmatised point where they are taboo. The US has issues of its own as discussion of end-of-life care often inflames religious sentiment that holds the sanctity of life paramount. The issue is complicated by the perception that “hospice care” is often associated with “giving up”.

Cultural attitudes are not the only barriers in improved care, policy issues, health care training, and state funding also play a large role. As the EIU points out advancements in healthcare have been responsible for the most significant quality-of-life gains in the recent past: that humans are (on average) living longer, and more healthily than ever, is well established. But “quality of death” is another matter, the deeper inclusion of palliative care into broader health policy, and the improvement of standards of end-of-life care—raising the “quality of death”—will also yield significant gains for humanity’s quality of life.

Intricacies of the Chinese Language

2010-07-14T11:46:00.005-05:00

Barbra Demick reports on the culture that is threating to disappear as the Chinese adopt typing and texting as a form of communication as a opposed to the more traditional stroke of the pen. The intricacies of the language prove descriptive:

The Chinese language can squeeze a lot of information into a small space. One example is a single character, pronounced "zha," which means the red dots that appear on your nose when you are drunk

A loss of this expression is evident when the younger generation of Chinese balk at being able to reproduce handwritten language like this without the benefit of a few moments pause.

Failed States Index 2010

2010-07-14T09:45:00.002-05:00

Foreign Policy magazine and The Fund For Peace collaborate to publish an annual Failed States Index-- drawing on 90,000 publicly available sources to analyze 177 countries and rate them on 12 metrics of state decay. Among the most stable nations were the Scandinavian states, Ireland, and Switzerland. Somalia was considered the most failed state for the third year running, in fact the weakest states were nearly all located in Africa. Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Haiti were also all included for their national frailty. All 12 indicators of failure contribute to the final index score, a few key ones:

DEMOGRAPHICS
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): 9.9 of 10
If you live in Congo, there's about a 50-50 chance you are under age 14. Population growth hovers at a fast-paced 3 percent annually, despite civil war, a sky-high infant mortality rate, and pervasive infectious disease.

BRAIN DRAIN
Zimbabwe: 9.7
One out of every five Zimbabweans has fled the country over the past decade-many of them professors, doctors, engineers, lawyers, and journalists.

PUBLIC SERVICES
Niger: 9.7
Niger may well be the poorest country in the world. The government lacks any ability to provide services such as education and health care; rampant illiteracy and high rates of infant mortality are the abysmal result.

SECURITY FORCES
Somalia: 10
In a few parts of Mogadishu, the government or African Union peacekeepers are in control. Elsewhere, it's Islamist militias, local warlords, or an assortment of rival clan factions.

FACTIONALIZED ELITES
Somalia: 10
Islamist and clan organizations vie for control throughout the country, and internal shake-ups have made the government spectacularly unstable.

These twelve factors don't always tell the whole story, a few Latin American countries are demonstrating some very worrying paths. Organized crime and drug trafficking only the beginning.

Its no secret that many of these nations are struggling hold on to any consistent form of government, much less provide basic necessities for poverty stricken nationals. Chaos and lawlessness are often the result of a fractured populace who suffer from a myriad of afflictions: hyperinflation, disease, insurgencies, ethnic clashes. Hope remains, countries having moved out of the top 20 in the past few years include Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Colombia. Although as both the contributing organizations point out, there are still many nations balancing on the edge of stability, inching toward their breaking point.

Following Eastern Europe in the Caspian

2010-07-13T12:13:00.005-05:00

Eastern Approaches blog follows the 'petropolitics' of the Caspian region as they relate to the Russian bloc. It serves as a good follow up to my recent post on China's bid for power in the region. Notably, the EU, Russian pipeline rivalry intensifies in wake of a tightening gas market.

Also an overview of European pipeline projects.

While European energy security may not be as pressing as China's internal energy demand growth, it still opens the Western lobby to questions and issues pertaining to transport and Central Asian influence.

Stopping the Rotation of the Earth

2010-07-13T11:08:00.005-05:00

Effects of a Stagnant Globe

What would happen if the earth's rotation slowed down and finally stopped spinning over a period of a few decades? Witold Fraczek demonstrations the capabilities of GIS to model results, while performing calculations and estimations-- creating a series of maps showing what the effects of an absence of centrifugal force would have on sea level.

The gravity of the earth is the strongest at the polar regions (shown in green above). It is intermediate in the middle latitudes and weakest at the high altitudes of the Andes, close to the equator. When global rotation stops, the massive oceanic water migration would cease and sea level would be at different locations-- the oceans would gradually migrate toward the poles and cause land in the equatorial region to emerge. This would eventually result in a huge equatorial megacontinent and two large polar oceans.

The lack of a centrifugal effect would result in the gravity of the earth being the only significant force controlling the extent of the oceans. Though the moon and sun also play a role, their distance from the earth makes their function in global ocean migration negligible.

Formation of Polar Oceans

As gravity continued to assert its influence, the Arctic Ocean would deepen in the North and Antarctica would eventually become submerged. Northern Canada, and the Siberian basin would be the first victims of the changing tides—followed by Scanadavia, Europe and the Central Asian regions. Changes to the continental outlines at low latitudes would be barely perceptible because (with a few exceptions) equatorial waters are deep, and a decrease in water level by a few dozen meters would not cause large areas of land to emerge.

Eventually oceanic land exposure would take place near the equatorial global divide line and the oceans would start to cleave, the final connection broken at the lowest point located southwest of the Kiribati Islands. From then on its merely further development of an east-west strip of land circling the globe.

Historical Happenings

Interestingly enough, during the Devonian period (400 million years ago), the earth rotated about 40 more times during one revolution around the sun than it does now. Because the continents have drifted significantly since that time, it is difficult to make estimates of the land versus ocean outlines for that era. However, we can be certain that—with a faster spinning speed in the past—the equatorial bulge of oceanic water was much larger then than it is today. Similarly, the ellipsoidal flattening of the earth was also more significant.

As hypothetical as this situation is, it does serve the practical purpose of demonstrating what millions of years of oscillating gravitational pulls and centrifugal forces can have on the construct of earths geography.

Thermographic Mapping

2010-07-13T10:15:00.003-05:00

Thermo imaging technology uses a Google Mapsesque satellite zoom and view to measure surrounding heat loss from rooftops. Right now its only available for use in Belgium, though as it expands on the public domain, just pop in your address and see how energy efficient your house or local supermarket is.

A Closer Look at Yemen

2010-07-12T16:03:00.003-05:00

Following up to my recent post on the volatility of Yemen, I take a closer look at its cultural, political, and economic climate.

Roots of Discontent

Hovering over the horn of Africa, Yemen is a country with a faltering one dimensional economy, a dangerously devolved political structure, and a growing insurgency that not only threatens its own stability, but also the security of Western powers.

Yemen is home to one of the world’s oldest civilizations, and only recently have parts of it been pried open to the global community—in fact most of it still lays in isolation, governed by self contained tribal and regional leaders. Historically a divided nation, North Yemen was occupied by the Ottomans at the turn of the 20th century, followed by a succession of leaders eventually (via the lobby of surrounding nations) establishing the Yemen Arab Republic. Southern Yemen shed its British rule in the 1930’s and ultimately fell under the sway to the Marxists, who governed with the Yemeni Socialist Party.. Unification didn’t come until 1994, after President Ali Abdullah Saleh quelled a civil war and granted southern amnesty. Since then Salah has had to perform a political juggling match to appease interest groups and tribal insurgents.

National Woes

Water depletion, declining oil revenues, rising food prices, and the ubiquitous drug qat all plague Yemen in both the long and short term. Government fuel subsidies have cost the treasury several billion dollars annually, draining the coffers and distorting commodity prices-- creating artificially low water pumping costs. Water, an already precious resource in an arid nation, is becoming frighteningly scarce. Currently nearly 40% of local agriculture water resources are allocated for cultivation of qat, a stimulant whose leaves are widely chewed throughout the Horn of Africa.

Qat chewing, though it is an age-old tradition and ingrained in Yemeni culture, also cripples attempts at promoting sustainable development. Not only does it deplete the country's water resources and reduce food security, low-income chewers spend significant portions of their time and salaries (between 10 and 30 percent) on qat. According to one Yemeni social critic: “No development can be achieved in Yemen as long as this plant called qat takes up 90 percent of the spare time of the Yemeni people.”

Though perhaps the most worrying facet of the Yemeni economy is the nation’s dependence on oil revenues (75% of governmental revenue), and the path of decline those revenues have set course for. economists predict that Yemen will deplete its modest oil reserves in 10 to 15 years. Production has fallen nearly 25 percent over the last six years. In terms of diversifying its economy, though the government has developed alternative strategies, in reality, Yemen may become even more dependent on international assistance and worker remittances in the future. Its tourism industry suffers from chronic instability and frequent tribal kidnappings of foreigners.

A Jihadist Seed

National economic woes and a lack of political resolve have allowed Islamic Jihadists to leverage the countries weak infrastructure, rugged topography, and Muslim extremist roots to stake a safe haven. A national unrest, often roughly ironed over by the copious Yemeni consumption of qat, has bred deep poverty, high illiteracy and birth rates, and government corruption.

Already a tender box for conflict, Yemen has the region's largest arms market: the country, with roughly 20 million people, is said to have at least 20 million guns. Incidents with the USS Cole in 2000 and a bombing of Spanish tourists a few years later led to an internationally led crackdown on suspected terror operatives in Yemen. Although these jihadists, claiming allegiance to Al Qaeda, appear to have reorganized and become more methodical, after releasing more propaganda materials on the Internet and orchestrating increased violence.

Hope For The Future?

Foreign companies are continually plague with hardship while doing business in Yemen, this discontent does not bode well for future economic revitalization. In addition to government corruption and a declining country specialization (as oil disappears) many investors are disinclined to poor any type of capital into the country until Islamic extremist actions are curbed and the country maintains a consistent political stability. It is paramount that international organizations and foreign governments continue to keep Yemen's neighbors active in stabilization efforts. Moreover, Yemen's position in the international limelight may serve to push media driven political action, but sustained political agendas can only come from international governmental commitments.

The 'Petropolitics' of The Caspian Sea

2010-07-12T15:30:00.007-05:00

Chinese Influence

As China seeks to secure energy resources to fuel its ever expanding economy and population, geopolitical tensions are apt to run high. Despite being the single most influential player in the global natural gas market, increasing domestic prices are spurring state owned energy conglomerates to not only step up its own natural gas development, but also to expand their capacity to import liquid natural gas (LNG) from places like Australia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Qatar.

The keystone of the Chinese energy infrastructure lies within the East-West pipeline that transports gas from the energy rich, but volatile region of Xinjiang . In effort to broaden international energy access, work is currently underway to complete a 1,139 mile China-Central Asia pipeline that connects Xinjaing with resource ridden Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The Caspian Sea and the surrounding basin is a largely untapped reserve of LNG traditionally harvested by Moscow via the Russian-Turkmenistan pipeline. However recent pipeline damages have brought the natural gas transport to a trickle and shifted economic and commercial energy influence to China.

Political Forces in the Caspian Region

With its skyrocketing demand and wherewithal to invest, Chinese energy companies look very attractive to countries like Turkmenistan, but these gas-rich countries will certainly tread carefully as attendant political influence is not always viewed favorably. Most are not interested in supplanting one imperial master in Moscow for another in Beijing.
While US and EU interest in Caspian region are strong, with a $2 billion trans-Caspian, Nabucco project planned to go west across the Caspian and through Turkey to Austria, its position is weak. Competing private companies are working against one another and current Chinese influence would likely require Chinese support, both financial and technical.

As the China expands its interests, both politically and economically, it must be wary of the stability of the region. Moreover, Western powers and Russia need to shore up energy infrastructure if they want to continue to be players in the Caspian basin. Ultimately it is up to the Central Asian states to determine the role these energy hungry world powers can play in harvesting their resources, entering exclusive contracts or allowing undue access could turn politically sour.

The Physical World: Population vs. Land

2010-07-09T10:56:00.004-05:00

Radical Cartography takes a look, from both latitudinally and longitudinally perspectives, at the dispersion of population and the distribution of land.

Compare to human geographical dispersions:

Clearly population developed at a higher proportion in the northern hemisphere, in fact roughly 88% of the world’s population lives north of the equator. One factor in this growth was the skewed ratio of northern land mass, however interestingly enough-- only about two-thirds of the world’s land is north of the equator.

Temperate, equatorial climates are preferred for dense population growth, where humans live on average 24 degrees from the equator despite the fact the world's land is on average 37 degrees from the equator. Also, an interesting look at the % of land use for crops during the past three centuries-- I would imagine this plays a large role in where groups of populations end up.

Stepping Toward a New African Country?

2010-07-09T09:41:00.005-05:00

In a move reminiscent of the beginnings of the European Union:

..the East Africa Community officially recognized a new commerce unification initiative that will promote trade between member nations: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. The agreement, originally signed late last year, eliminates tariffs, opens borders, loosens immigration and work-permit restrictions, reduces aviation restrictions, and streamlines customs.

The bloc aims to become a monetary union by 2012 and have a common currency by 2015, with political federation to come soon after. Ultimately, leaders from the countries talk about becoming a single east African nation.

China, a major trade partner to the EAC nations, also announced it would further cut back its already-low tariffs on imports from the involved countries. Recently busying itself with infrastructure projects, China hopes to boost the expediency and efficiency at which goods can be traded-- free movement between EAC nations will surely help to shore up this investment.

As far as uniting historically divided nations? Pratibha Thaker, regional director for the Economist Intelligence Unit comments,“It is critical for trade in service and trade in goods, economics will make them come together faster than politics.”

Asian Influence in the Middle East

2010-07-08T11:14:00.004-05:00

A Growing Presence

The United States has been the de facto military power in the Middle East over the past decade. The US led Iraqi coalition in ousting the Hussein regime, the occupation of Afghanistan, and even the display of force in the early 90’s during the Gulf War have all led to a near constant US influence and presence, guiding both Middle Eastern policy and cultural sentiment. A position that has in the past remained relatively unchallenged now looks to be tested by a number of Asian powers with growing interests in the region.

India, China, Japan, and South Korea, all becoming more and more tied to the economic structure of the Middle East via energy needs, investment in infrastructure projects, and a growing commercial influence. As the infrastructure (Asian funded seaports, roads, oil pipelines, railways, etc) continues to develop, the Asian presence in the Middle East will continue to grow significantly over the coming decade. For now, these countries vie just to advance relations with key economically sound countries—but there is a question a possible shift of future power.

A Threat to US Interests?

It would be wise for the US to take all these notions in stride, though as FP recognizes-- a slow withdrawal from the Middle Eastern region could bring about the reemergence of more traditional balance-of-power politics as the Asian nations become world players and seek increased trade stability. China has shown that is has far less interest in idealistic or political issues when deal with foreign partners. This has, in the past, encouraged relations with countries like North Korea, Sudan, and Iran—moreover; its foray into the Middle East could prove less burdensome than America’s own. An attitude of political cynicism and moral apathy toward Arab-Israeli relations provides more of a strictly economic relationship and trips up trade far less often than would its Western counterparts.

Either way, the region will continue to be unstable, which makes US – Asian relations more important than ever. Agreements and cooperation in the Middle East will benefit all nations involved and provide a steady foundation for future stability to develop in the region.

Poor Nations Effect on World GDP

2010-07-08T10:35:00.005-05:00

FiveThirtyEight via Tyler Cowen:

You could completely wipe out the poorest 81 nations in the world, with a total population of 2.8 billion, and the blow to global GDP would "only" be about 5 percent.

It comes as somewhat of a shock to put world poverty in these terms, a sure perspective of how little of the world's output the very poorest consume. Although wealth is growing in most of these countries, their % of world GDP continues to decrease, mostly due to growing consumption in developing countries like China, India, and Brazil.

A Visualization of Locals vs Tourists

2010-07-07T11:19:00.004-05:00

These maps provide an interesting look into the impact that tourists have on different parts of major cities. The data derived from geotagging, or gleaning location information from photos taken by individuals and posted online to sites like Flickr. These images are pulled from the Geotaggers World Atlas, which also visualizes multiple other cities. Blue points on the map are pictures taken by locals and red points are pictures taken by tourists.

London

New York

San Francisco

You can see what areas of the city locals take interest in, and by contrast the sights tourists deem worthy of capturing. A concentration of tourists surround historically prominent areas and sections of the city known for novel attractions. Interestingly, the Atlas also depicts Disneyland (almost all tourists) and places like Kansas City (very few tourists).

Yemen as the Next Afghanistan?

2010-07-07T10:16:00.005-05:00

Quietly balancing on the edge of two continents, Yemen is strangely isolated. Separated from the Arab world by one of the most barren deserts in the world, though acting as a gate to the Red Sea only miles from the African coast. Mountainous topography, arid climate, and Arab Islamic inhabitants liken it to its Middle Eastern brethren, but as the NY Times depics:

Yemen is different. Beneath the familiar Arab iconography, like pictures of the president that hang in every shop, there is a wildness about the place, a feeling that things might come apart at any moment. A narcotic haze descends on Yemen every afternoon, as men stuff their mouths with glossy khat leaves until their cheeks bulge and their eyes glaze over. Police officers sit down and ignore their posts, a green dribble running down their chins. Taxi drivers get lost and drive in circles, babbling into their cellphones. But if not for the opiate of khat, some say, all of Yemen - not just those areas of the south and north already smoldering with discontent - would explode into rebellion.

Foreign visitors hold the consensus that there is no law and order in Yemen, the nation is realistically governed on a more regional scale by tribal leaders. In fact, much of Yemen's budget now goes into corruption and kickbacks-- worth billions of dollars-- fueling a network of patronage and appeasement payments to local tribal leaders. Most attribute current President Ali Abdullah Saleh's longevity as leader to his aversion to take on any of the tribes directly, in effect letting them dictate business avoid of any central government intervention.

Saleh's leadership concerns don't just stem from his inability to dictate what goes on in his country, but almost even more significantly-- his known and historic relationship with jihadists and Islamic fundamentalists. These ties are worrying as the US seeks to collaborate and strengthen relationships with Yemeni government officials in effort to drive out any Al Queda presence.

Geographically, governmentally, and culturally speaking, Yemen is worrying. Instability, or even intensified foreign pressure could cause the country to crack. Careful steps need to be made in toughening up the government and internal infrastructure.

A Report on Asian Hyper-Development

2010-07-07T09:33:00.005-05:00

Asia’s Explosion

Asia has the fastest growing cities in the world, many of which are also seeking to become the most energy needy. Energy consumption on the continent grew by 70% in the years leading to 2008 and, according to the Asian Development Bank, 44 million people joined the ranks of urban populations each year. This enormous shift of humanity feeds the economic engine of progress and strains the needed energy capacity of the megalopolises that are forming.

While living in cities, people need to travel shorter distances, a prospective green advantage. However with exploding, sprawling, poorly planned city infrastructures—resident benefits wane to the point of aggregate disadvantage. Using China as an example, we can look at the overextension of cities like Beijing where the average commuter routinely spends over two hours on the road to and from work. Although congestions and pollution are only the effect of a greater cause, namely-- hyper-development. In fact half the worlds new floor space is built each year in China, mounting particularly high pressure on government officials to enact green codes for energy efficiency.

Recently the government has heeded the call and mandated energy standards for heating, cooling, and lighting in attempt to cut energy use by 65%. Though with the common practice of building first and greening later, many Asian developers are eschewing the growing Western mindset of building and designing green-- often costing long-term progress.

Solutions in Sustainability

However, these problems aren’t without their visionary solutions. For years architects have devised simple, relatively inexpensive “fixes” to many of the energy and resource problems that plague large Asian cities. In any event, the fact remains that the only real step of progress will be when these green alternatives are understood to developers as a profitable means to balance the cost of pollution and expand efficiently.

Government energy utility subsidies pose another intimidating barrier, but in the same way, government policy makers must realize the trade-off of growing at a long-term cost. Sustainable growth is the only healthy indicator of a crisp future.

Geography and Failed States

2010-07-06T12:15:00.006-05:00

An interesting piece by FP examining the patent impact of geographic systems on the success of nation states. A highly recommended read. Africa for example:

Consider Africa, where nearly half of the top 60 countries in the Failed States Index are located, in most cases south of -- or at least at the southern extremity of -- the Sahara. Although Africa is the world's second-largest continent, with an area three times that of Europe, its coastline south of the Sahara is about a fifth as long and lacks many good natural harbors.

Few of tropical Africa's rivers are navigable from the ocean, dropping as they do from interior tableland to coastal plains by a series of falls and rapids. The Sahara hindered human contact with the north for too many centuries, so that Africa was little exposed to the great Mediterranean civilizations. All this has combined to afflict Africa with the burden of geographic isolation.

Learning Uncommon Languages

2010-07-06T11:43:00.005-05:00

Faroese, the native language of the Faroe Islands, is spoken by about 45,000 people worldwide. The Islands are a speck between Iceland and Scandinavia, their spoken and written word a remnant of a middle aged Nordic language-- related only remotely to the Icelandic language. Learning to speak it is no easy task, especially if you don't live there. Wikipedia via MR blog:

So most students are forced to learn it autodidactically by books, listening to Faroese on the radio (there is an internet live stream) and trying to correspond with Faroese people. A good opportunity for learning Faroese is also visiting the websites of Postverk Føroya and reading their stories about the stamp editions both in Faroese and English (or German, French and Danish) as well as an online dictionary on Sprotin [1], which requires a small subscription fee.

In an academic setting University College London and the University of Copenhagen have course options in Faroese for students reading Scandinavian Studies. Additionally the University of the Faroe Islands offer an annual Summer language institute. In short, its hard and has limited benefits.

Worlds Largest Food Market

2010-07-06T09:44:00.004-05:00

La Central de Abasto de la Ciudad de México. This sprawling food market located in Mexico City has no worldwide peer, with its own postcode, 700 man police force, and border entry gates-- La Cenral de Abasto is an astounding conglomeration of food and people. Upon its opening in 1980, approximately eighty percent of Mexico’s food supply passed through its 111 kilometres of passageways. Considered one of Mexico's final experiments in central planning, the market still supplies around twenty to thirty percent of the countries food resources.

Reason's for such a central market for food? Edible Geography espouses:

Cities with a centralised food distribution system traditionally kept markets close to the seat of government, recognising the power of food as a political tool. That proximity was intended to help kings and ministers maintain tight control over the urban populace through the supply of food, but as cities and the markets that fed them grew, the strategy backfired. By concentrating all the city’s food in one place, they created a powerhouse strong enough to defy them.

This is In fact La Central de Abasto's stated mission is to: "Be the axis of the country’s food supply system, in order to regulate the market and offer the consumer quality and price." Historically the market catered to people who sell in smaller markets, to restaurants and food stands-- however more recently it has shifted to serve more wholesale and retail consumers, becoming more of just a huge public market.

An interesting study in food allocation for one of the largest cities in the world, Edible Geography blog also provides a striking contrast to the noise, rubbish, chaos, smells, and mix of rich and poor that the Mexican market provides-- to New York's Hunt's Point Food Distribution Center.

What Russia and the US Think of Each Other

2010-07-02T10:13:00.006-05:00

It is remarkable to see how political events and government actions adjust the perceptions of the respective national citizens. Interestingly enough, the time I spent in Russia during the summer of 2008, Russian perceptions of Americans were at their nadir. I never encountered any noticeable hostility, but we were often warned to tread carefully. From the Economist: "However resentful the Russians can be of America, they also see it as a mirror which reflects their own place in the world."

Though it does seem as if Russians have a hard time deciding about their opinions regarding Americans.

Soccer and Tensions in European Racial Integration

2010-07-02T09:47:00.004-05:00

The denigration of France's North and sub-Saharan African athletes has been a favorite theme of the French extreme right for years. But after a lackluster performance that saw the French squad sent home after the first round amid a swirl of scandals, racial tensions only intensified. Much of this sentiment stirred up by the media.

The recent uproar began after the entire French team refused to attend a training session following the expulsion of a teammate. The player in question, Nicolas Anelka, had shouted obscenities at the coach, Raymond Domenech, during the halftime of France's 0-2 pasting by Mexico on June 17. When the French media began calling this action a "strike" and a "mutiny,"... escelating into a political dimension-- indispensable black talent confronted the white authority figure whose job it was to keep them under control.

The huge media resonance of this French scandal also points to its symbolic significance for Western Europe as a whole. Indeed, the ubiquity and severity of ethnic and religious tensions in the European Union's prosperous welfare states have become an integral part of the European condition

A Look at the Conflict in Kyrgyzstan: Part II

2010-07-01T11:09:00.006-05:00

A Slow Trickle Back

Two weeks after a mass exodus of over 100,000 Uzbeks from the south of Kyrgyzstan, almost half are beginning to slowly trickle back home. This past week refugees, though preferring to stay in UN relief camps, were strongly encourage by government officials to return home in order to vote on the constitutional referendum that would reduce presidential power and strengthen parliament. To many, the Kyrgyz government’s statements were interpreted as threats to their citizenship. A continued, but quieted tension awaits them, as the interim government attempts to stave off any further conflict.

However, voters did approve the new mandate with 90% support allowing the government some sense of elevated authority. Nonetheless, weakness of the current Kyrgtzstani leadership should be worrying to both neighboring and allied countries, with legitimacy still in question.

Geopolitical Significance

Nestled in the center of the massive Asian continent, Kyrgyzstan is a mountainous country with a poor internal infrastructure. Though Soviet-era build’s profited the state 50 airports, most can only be used for internal travel and military transport. Due to a failure to meet EU safety regulations, no airline registered within the country may operate internationally. As the only state in the world to have both U.S. and Russian military bases within its borders, Kyrgyzstan is hardly unfamiliar with geopolitical manipulations. However isolated and mountainous topography, lack of convenient natural resources, and floundering industry have made it a questionable bet for either countries strategic interest. Russia, as the former imperial power in the region, seems to have more stake in the affair—with domestic investment and industrial capital. China too has a budding interest in a stable Central Asian region, as hopes of oil and natural gas sprout along with a planned oil pipeline in neighboring Xingjiang province. Additionally, keeping riotous overthrows at bay in Kyrgyzstan will likely deprive any neighboring minority fundamentalists, whether Islamic or ethnic, any motivation to upset native rule themselves.

Though they have already been of limited assistance, relevant adjacent countries Uzbekistan and Tajikistan will likely balk at opening their borders wide enough for any sizeable group of refugees to flow through, much less have the capacity or resources to provide any neighborly internal aid.

A Free Market Solution to Immigration?

2010-07-01T10:04:00.012-05:00

Never have their been more national and international restrictions on immigration. Conversely, never have their been more individuals who have wanted to immigrate-- especially to wealthy, first-world countries. Limited visa's places like the EU, Britain, and the US are sparingly issued and often run out in the first few weeks of the year. A huge question for immigration leaders and policy makers is how to know who to let in, and who to keep out?

Earlier this week at the Institute of Economic Affairs, Gary Becker presented a solution that would use economic principles to allot visas, essentially allowing the free market to determine the flow of immigrants. Countries could sell the right to migrate either by selling the right to migrate at a price that called forth a desired number of migrants, or my auctioning a certain set amount of immigration visas.

Adjusting the market price would correspondingly regulate the amount of migrants a certain country would deem beneficial to admit. This fee based system would surely generate a large amount of income for the gate keeping country, but would it attract the desirable migrant? Maybe. Becker argues that young, hard-working, innovators wanting to take advantage of Americas patent system, would be the first in line. They would have more years to recoup the cost of entry than the old. However, as The Economist points out this would leave out the individuals who are talented and unable to pay, though perhaps inspiring a colonial era indenture servitude model. It could also leave places like America with an abundance retirement ready Indians who have already earned their fortune and want to live a ripe old life on free Medicare.

As enticing as Becker's free market solution is, the reality is that more characteristics than just the willingness to pay matter to intellectual hunting countries like America and Great Britain. In the long term, economic desirability of migrants is a different principle of value than economic availability.

A Russian Suburban Sprawl

2010-06-30T12:06:00.004-05:00

A drive through Moscow, or any large Russian city, will award the traveler an almost endless horizon filled with high rise Communist-era residential developments. This remnant of the Soviet bloc's central planning is a clear visual reminder of the influence the past still holds on a majority of Russians. In fact almost 77% of Russia's 150 million citizens still living in these now deteriorating, utilitarian housing units.

Recently, partly in effort to shake away the socialist past and ignite some sort of "Russian dream", plans have been revealed for government leaders to partner with private ventures and develop 2.5 million acres for private homes. To put that in perspective-- at Los Angeles densities, this amount of land would be sufficient to house about 28,000,000 people, or roughly double the present population of the Moscow urban area.

The Russian government, speculating the desire for a mass urban exodus and property ownership, still have to consider the underdeveloped private housing market in their yet young capitalistic market. Due to an immature home-loan market, private citizens may have trouble finding methods to fund this new exploit. However, looking at the high cost of living-- specifically renting in the Moscow area, potential homeowners may find more long-term value in these new city fringe communities. Pre-fabricated housing would ensure lower build prices and governmental guarantees that financing programs (including a mortgage market that's expected to double this year) will be available seeking to attract both developers and potential Russian homeowners.

Perhaps this new outlook of urban flight and private property ownership for the middle class-- all a departure from traditional Russian living-- will instigate a sort of societal renewal, shifting values and providing a much needed boost in economic progression.

Entrepreneuial Progress in Rwanda

2010-06-29T12:56:00.005-05:00

From East African Business Week:

An Online business registration service has been officially launched in Rwanda reducing time it takes to register a company from a day to just one hour.

Many Sub-Saharan countries historically hanging by a thread economically with revenues from foreign tourism are seeking ways to spur on innovation among the educated and entrepreneurial. Rwanda, worlds ahead of most of its African counterparts in ease of doing business, first reduced the period for registering a business from 30 days to a week and then to three days and and has now come up with just an hour.

Looking at the Conflict in Kyrgyzstan: Part I

2010-06-29T11:11:00.002-05:00

Recent Conflict

Over the past few months, an intent international gaze has firmly rested itself upon the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan. Violent, ethnically inspired demonstrations have broken out in several different cities across the county. Most recently clashes in the southern city of Osh have led to over 200 confirmed deaths – many more unreported, thousands injured, and a flood of refugees into neighboring state Uzbekistan. The fighting and riots, having quieted early last week, occurred between the counties two main ethnic groups—the southern dwelling, state minority Uzbeks and the northern concentrated majority Kyrgyzs.

The seeds of the political unrest, planted years before were ignited in mid-April when opposition Uzbek leaders protested against government corruption and increased living expenses. Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev declared a state of emergency and eventually fled for exile in sympathetic former Soviet satellite Belarus. The renewed May ethnic clashes bring about fears of a civil war and have interim administrator Roza Otunbayeva scrambling for international peacekeeping aid. Currently the provisional government has lost control of the southern portion of the country and the Uzbeks have set up de facto autonomous zones and refused to recognize the authorities in the Kyrgyz capital.

Ethnic and Political Backdrop

Historically, tensions between the two largest ethnic groups in Kyrgyzstan have been high. While neighboring states Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have had a single authoritarian leader since the break-up of the Soviet bloc, Kyrgyzstanis have twice overthrown leaders for perceived corruption, tyranny, and nepotism.

Tumult in the political system was demonstrated in 2005, when Soviet-minded leader Askar Akayev was ousted for muscling up his presidential power. His predecessor, Mr. Bakiyev, managed to govern with equal disregard, denying opponents economic opportunity and also eyeing reins for stronger presidential clout. However, presidential appetite for power has done little but divide the Uzbeks and the Krygyzs. The divide is more than just idealistic, mountainous terrain isolates the southern Uzbeks geographically with comparable rigor. The two regions are held together by a scant two roads, making a one way trip from Krygyyzstani capital Bishkek to the largest southern city of Osh a full day’s journey. These thin threads of transportation are all that connect the semi-industrially developed north with the poor, Islamic, and agrarian south.

Working with a politically, geographically, and ethnically divided nation, Kyrgyzstani leader have a good deal of unification work to be done.

Unique Culture Inclination of the Day

2010-06-28T14:39:00.005-05:00

In Russia, the 'Ask the Audience' lifeline isn't one that the contestant would often use because the audience often gives wrong answers intentionally to trick the contestants.

It seems the game is played much differently in Eastern-Europe. My best guess is that this attitude stems from a continued disdain of the oligarchical rich that Russia can't seem to shake. Any instant wealth is perceived as great for the self-interested individual, but bad if you his neighbor.

From Fact Index via Alex Tabarrok

The Illegal Gateway to Europe

2010-06-28T12:56:00.002-05:00

Historically Europe has been a haven for immigrants from Africa and the Middle East looking for better fortune. However, the global financial crisis has had some interesting implications on human movement:

The vast majority of all illegal immigrants detected attempting to enter the 25-nation EU do so from Greece. The bloc's southernmost member accounted for 75 per cent of all attempted illegal border crossings in 2009 and 88 per cent in the first part of 2010...

This is comes as no surprise considering Greece’s numerous islands and close proximity to both Africa and the Middle East. Although in the past year, with Greece continuing to economically limp along and the EU fairing only slightly better, illegal immigration is down 33% as illicit travelers are either opting to move elsewhere or stay home.

Africa and the iPhone

2010-06-25T18:37:00.002-05:00

If you walk through most major cities in Africa, you'll see a surprising collection of mobile phone vendors peddling nearly every major cell phone brand, Samsung, Nokia, Motorola. Africa has for awhile been considered one of the worlds top mobile growth markets. Consumers from the worlds poorest continent have been surprisingly speedy adopters of the mobile communication and technology. The infrastructure is developing with comparable hast, filling the large and historic void that a fixed line communication infrastructure left in the wake of Africa's large expanses and low capital allotments. Even smartphone, data oriented companies like Blackberry and Google's Android have offices across the continent and are looking to expand their operations as the network explodes.

However despite all the promise, theres one player that has yet to bite in the burgeoning African market-- Steve Jobs and his iPhone. FP reports:

For the vast majority of Africans, Apple effectively doesn't exist. The iTunes store's music offerings have never been available on the continent; African IP addresses are blocked. The iPhone goes for $1,000 at local retailers -- 10 times the current U.S. price for the same model, a big-enough markup that most iPhones on the continent are purchased abroad instead -- and because of limited bandwidth and apps availability, owning one is "like having a Maserati in traffic," according to Tayo Oviosu, CEO of Pagatech, a mobile banking firm in Nigeria.

Judging from the affect that an introduction of cheap cell phones has done for the infrastructure of the African continent, its uncharacteristic of Apple and Jobs to fail in recognizing the opportunity that this flourishing market avails. Additionally Africa, for the time being, loses out on the innovative prowess that the iPhone could bring to both its mobile infrastructure and its young, dynamic population. Pointedly speaking, its not only Africans who don't gain without Apple's latest novelties:

As mobile data usage comes to replace traditional computing in Africa, the new unit of engagement for business, government relations, and humanitarian work may be the smartphone -- and it stands to reason that the company with the best local presence will reap the benefits of rising incomes and demand on a continent of nearly 1 billion.

Is Africa, with her vast natural prowess and historic record of sucking dry reputable investment, to much a risk for the forward think Jobs?

A Note of Welcome

2010-06-25T17:38:00.002-05:00

Greetings to you all! I have started this new blog in order to contribute in the ongoing conversation in world affairs, both regional and global, that the web community continually unfolds. My hope is to bring some insight into the maze of discussion, connect ideas, and comment on a wide variety of issues. As my interest lies in human geography, I will explore how the social organization of regions and its corresponding place in the global network is influence by location, political orientations, and economic development.

For the past year I have blogged, somewhat satirically, at Nineword.com; remarking mainly on American culture and economic happenstance. Diverging from the flippancies of Nineword, I seek to bring more focus to this dialogue and engage in a more research oriented style of blogging.

Enough introduction, have a terrific weekend, watch the world cup-- but if your American, don't become to obsessed.